An expert analysis of the 2020 presidential vote conducted by economist John R. Lott Jr. has called into question Joe Biden‘s victories in multiple battleground states.
The study suggests that there were 289,000 “excess” votes for Biden in states where he held a small margin of victory over President Trump. Lott’s analysis also shows that differences in votes between neighboring counties were “suspicious.”
According to Lott his study calls into question Biden’s victories in Pennsylvania and Georgia, and casts a cloud over the election results in Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Arizona.
— John R Lott Jr. (@JohnRLottJr) December 29, 2020
“The precinct level estimates for Georgia and Pennsylvania indicate that vote fraud may account for Biden’s win in both states. The voter turnout rate data also indicates that there are significant excess votes in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin as well,” wrote Lott in his report.
The expert presented his report as an independent model showing the potential for fraud and other voting problems that should be considered as courts sort through lawsuits challenging the election results.
President Trump shared this study on Twitter, writing: “New Lott study estimates 11,350 votes lost to Trump in Georgia. Another 289,000 ‘excess (fraudulent) votes’ across GA, AZ, MI, NV, PA, and WI. Check it out!”
New Lott study estimates 11,350 absentee votes lost to Trump in Georgia. Another 289,000 "excess (fraudulent) votes" across GA, AZ, MI, NV, PA, and WI. Check it out! ➡️https://t.co/eIBjdmox5R pic.twitter.com/2MlKVbBoLO
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) December 30, 2020
The Washington Examiner reported that Lott “noted that Trump’s efforts to prove fraud are being stymied by courts demanding proof but not giving him time to find it, the typical discovery phase in fraud cases. His modeling makes a case that there are tons of it, enough for courts to act.”
Lott analyzed voting in two important counties: Fulton County, Georgia, and Allegheny County, Pennsylvania. He found irregularities in both counties when compared to the 2016 vote.
One major irregularity was the difference in voting by people in neighboring counties. Lott found statistically significant differences “just across the street,” which may suggest potential vote tampering.
An example can be found in Fulton County, where Lott found that President Trump’s rate of absentee voting was significantly lower than in the four neighboring counties in the 2020 election compared to the 2016 election.
“Trump’s percentage of absentee votes was now lower in Fulton county border precincts than in the precincts just across the street in neighboring counties. Trump’s share was 7.19 percentage points lower on the Fulton county side, and the difference was also statistically significant at the 7% level for a two-tailed t-test,” Lott wrote.
“This is not likely to have been caused by the general shift to absentee voting among Democrats, because the study controlled for in-person voting. In layman’s terms, in precincts with alleged fraud, Trump’s proportion of absentee votes was depressed — even when such precincts had similar in-person Trump vote shares to their surrounding countries. The fact that the shift happens only in absentee ballots, and when a country line is crossed, is suspicious,” the expert added.
According to his analysis, 8,280 Biden votes were in question.
The Washington Examiner reported that, “Using a similar analysis of DeKalb County, Georgia, another county where there are concerns, votes, there was the potential for enough fraudulent Biden votes (15,762) to overturn Biden’s win by 12,670 votes certified in a recount.”
Similar results were found in Pennsylvania, and Lott’s modeling suggests similar findings in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin, which may potentially swing the election for Trump.
“The estimates here indicate that there were 70,000 to 79,000 ‘excess’ votes in Georgia and Pennsylvania. Adding Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin, the total increases to up to 289,000 excess votes,” the expert wrote.
Lott, who is widely known for his statistical analysis of guns in America, was recently named a senior adviser for research and statistics at the Office of Justice Programs.